One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds – By Nate Cohn – The New York Times

By 

Despite low national approval ratings and the specter of impeachment, President Trump remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to decide his re-election, according to a set of new surveys from The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.

How Trump fares among registered voters

Trumpvs. Biden Sanders Warren
Michigan (n=501)
Even
Sanders +2
Trump +6
Pennsylvania (661)
Biden +3
Sanders +1
Even
Wisconsin (651)
Biden +3
Sanders +2
Even
Florida (650)
Biden +2
Trump +1
Trump +4
Arizona (652)
Biden +5
Trump +1
Warren +2
North Carolina (651)
Trump +2
Trump +3
Trump +3
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,766 registered voters from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26.

Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error.

Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago.

The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.”

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