Opinion | Why Would a Republican Vote Biden? Ask Arizonans – The New York Times

By Samara Klar and 

Dr. Klar and Dr. Weber teach at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy.

Credit…Hilary Swift for The New York Times

“Arizona has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 24 years, and the state has not been represented by two Democratic senators in over 65 years. So we find ourselves in a historically strange place: Joe Biden holds a small but consistent edge over the president, and Mark Kelly, the Democratic Senate candidate, holds a lead in his race against his Republican opponent, Martha McSally.

Why is Arizona suddenly a swing state?

The answer is frequently attributed to changes in the demographics of our electorate. It is true that Arizona’s population is increasingly urban, college-educated and Latino — trends that favor the Democratic Party.

But this influx of Democratic-leaning groups doesn’t explain the change. After all, the proportions of registered Republicans and Democrats in Arizona have remained remarkably stable: Registered Republicans solidly outnumber registered Democrats.

What has changed is that more Republicans aren’t voting for the party’s candidate in elections for national office.”

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