Dreamers- Liars and Bad Economics – by Paul Krugman

“But in any case, adding “and besides, they’re stealing our jobs” undercuts the whole pretense.

Furthermore, the claim was, as I said, junk economics. The idea that there are a fixed number of jobs, so that if a foreign-born worker takes a job he or she takes it away from a native-born worker, is completely at odds with everything we know about how the economy works. Hearing it from a conservative is especially surreal.

The truth is that letting the Dreamers work legally helps the U.S. economy; pushing them out or into the shadows is bad for everyone except racists.

To understand why, you need to realize that America, like other advanced economies, is facing a double-barreled demographic challenge thanks to declining fertility.

On one side, an aging population means fewer workers paying taxes to support Social Security and Medicare. Demography is the main reason long-run forecasts suggest problems for Social Security, and an important reason for concerns about Medicare. Driving out young workers who will pay into the system for many decades is a way to make these problems worse.

On the other side, declining growth in the working-age population reduces the returns to private investment, increasing the risk of prolonged slumps like the one that followed the 2008 financial crisis.

It’s not an accident that Japan, which has low fertility and is deeply hostile to immigration, began experiencing persistent deflation and stagnation a decade before the rest of the world. Destroying DACA makes America more like Japan. Why would we want to do that?”

I struggle with this issue, but I have enormous respect for Paul Krugman, and I can’t find fault with his arguments or facts. I would like more proof that these people are not taking jobs from Americans, but the prooofs are from macro economics, and not always, but  mostsly. When some of us were laid off in the recession of 2008, it might have been because we were older. We were often replaced by younger workers. It is in the next 50 years that all of Kruman’s arguments make sense. In the next 30 years, we are in danger of copying the deadly deflation of Japan.

Here is a comment I endorse:

Socrates

is a trusted commenter Verona NJ September 8, 2017

Aside from the moral obscenity of deporting 800,000 law-abiding young people from the country they grew up in, what’s often overlooked about Republicans and their policies is how consistently destructive they are economically.

The historical record shows that Republican Presidents and Republican policies consistently have long-term deleterious economic effects: see Bush-Cheney’s 2001 – 2009 Reign of Error for a refresher course on Republican economic catastrophe.

A Moody’s Analytics analysis of Trump’s proposed economic policies last year showed that removing all undocumented immigrants from the labor force would trigger an economic recession within one year.

University of California – Davis economist Giovanni Peri says ending DACA would bring a net loss in productivity, given that the U.S. economy is close to full employment.

The CATO Institute estimated that ending DACA would reduce tax revenue by nearly $280 billion over a decade.

The Immigrant Legal Resource Center estimated that deporting DACA-eligible individuals would reduce Social Security and Medicare tax revenue by $24.6 billion over a decade.

The Center for American Progress estimated that that the loss of all DACA-eligible workers would reduce US GDP by $433 billion over the next 10 years.

The proposed elimination of DACA is great for Making America Hate Again…and horrible for Making America Great Again.

But Greed Over People demands mindless White Spite to drive it over yet another Republican cliff.

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Donald Trump’s Cowardice on ‘Dreamers’ – The New York Times

“President Trump didn’t even have the guts to do the job himself. Instead, he hid in the shadows and sent his attorney general, Jeff Sessions, to do the dirty work of telling the country that the administration would no longer shield from deportation 800,000 young undocumented immigrants brought to this country as children.

Mr. Sessions, a longtime anti-immigrant hard-liner, was more than up to the task. In a short, disingenuous speech, he said a program set up by President Barack Obama in 2012 — known as DACA, for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals — was a lawless policy that “yielded terrible humanitarian consequences” and denied jobs to hundreds of thousands of American citizens. (Mr. Trump echoed these claims in a statement released by the White House.) Mr. Sessions called DACA “an unconstitutional exercise of authority” and said “failure to enforce the laws in the past has put our nation at risk of crime, violence and terrorism.”

False, false, false and false.”

BPC-Immigration-Key-Findings-PRINT – BPC-Immigration-Employment-Wages-Key-Findings.pdf

“Over the past several decades, native-born Americans have become increasingly detached from the labor force, with declining levels of employment and labor force participation. Many have attempted to blame these trends on immigration, under the notion that immigrants displace native-born workers and drive down their wages. Although superficially appealing, these arguments are ultimately overly simplistic and misguided, as they ignore several other factors driving these trends.

A new Bipartisan Policy Center report analyzes the wage and employment outcomes of the foreign- and native-born populations. Since 2000, employment has decreased by 6 percentage points among the native-born population but by just 2 percentage points among the foreign-born population. However, the unemployment rate—defined as the percent of the population out of work but actively looking for a job—has remained roughly equal for the two demographics. This is because native-born individuals have increasingly chosen to exit the labor force for other reasons—namely to retire, enroll in school or enter disability (fig. 1). If native-born individuals exhibited the same change in rates of retirement, school enrollment and disability as foreign-born persons over the last 15 years, the native-born employment rate would be almost identical to the foreign-born rate (see ‘Native (Adjusted)’ in fig. 2).”

Source: BPC-Immigration-Key-Findings-PRINT – BPC-Immigration-Employment-Wages-Key-Findings.pdf

This is one of the answers to my recent question, show me the studies that DACA immigrants do not take jobs away from native workers.

The Very Bad Economics of Killing DACA – by Paul Krugman -NYT

“Trump’s decision to kill DACA — never mind the attempt to obscure things with that meaningless delay — is, first and foremost, a moral obscenity: throwing out 800,000 young people who are Americans in every way that matters, who have done nothing wrong, basically for racial reasons. But it’s also worth noting that Jeff Sessions just tried to sell it with junk economics, claiming that the Dreamers are taking American jobs. No, they aren’t, even if we leave aside the question of who’s an American. DACA is very much a boon to the rest of the U.S. population, and killing it will make everyone worse off.To see why, first note that whatever you think about the economics of less-educated immigrants — most of the evidence suggests that they don’t depress wages, but that’s another discussion — none of it applies to DREAMers. Their educational and behavioral profile, as Cato notes, doesn’t resemble the average immigrant, let alone the average undocumented immigrant; they look like H-1B visa holders, that is, skilled immigrants we have specifically allowed in because they help the economy.

Beyond that, DREAMers are young — which means that they help the economy in not one but two big ways, because they mitigate the economic problems caused by an aging population.”

Source: The Very Bad Economics of Killing DACA – The New York Times

Paul Krugman writes, “But it’s also worth noting that Jeff Sessions just tried to sell it with junk economics, claiming that the Dreamers are taking American jobs. No, they aren’t, even if we leave aside the question of who’s an American.”

Where are the hyperlinks. What are the studies that prove this point. If it is a canard, please show us the proofs, and the data.

 

An Elusive Immigration Compromise – by Ross Douthat – NYT

“The last time Gallup asked Americans if they thought immigration to the United States should increase or decrease, 35 percent chose a decrease, 24 percent an increase, and 38 percent preferred the present rate. Support for increasing immigration has been rising for a decade, but it remains relatively low. To the extent that there is a middle-ground position, it is for something like the status quo.

From polling like this you would imagine that recent immigration reform efforts would have worked in that middle space, trying to tweak the mix of new arrivals without increasing the immigration rate. But instead, most recent attempts at a “comprehensive” bill have sought not only amnesty for illegal immigrants, but an increase in low-skilled immigration, above the already brisk post-1960s pace.

Bipartisan bills dramatically at odds with the shape of public opinion are generally bad for both parties. And sure enough, the attempts at immigration reform under George W. Bush and Barack Obama helped give us both a much-reduced Democratic Party and a G.O.P. helmed by Donald Trump.”

President Trump’s Reckless Shame Game – The New York Times

“President Trump’s Homeland Security Department turned its immigration purge — and assault on the Constitution — up a notch this week. It posted the first of what it says will be weekly online reports identifying state and local law enforcement agencies that decline its requests to keep immigrants in jail to give federal agents time to pick them up.

The idea is to name and shame these agencies, accusing them of recklessly loosing dangerous aliens onto the streets. The report, on the Immigration and Customs Enforcement website, trumpets itself as a “Public Safety Advisory.” It includes a grim warning from the acting ICE director, Thomas Homan, about the agency’s requests, called detainers: “When law enforcement agencies fail to honor immigration detainers and release serious criminal offenders, it undermines ICE’s ability to protect the public safety and carry out its mission.” ”

I want much stronger control over illegal immigration into our country, and to basically stop illegal immigration. On the other hand, it is wrong to have a permissive system that allows illegals to work in the US, and then, get robbed by their employers, who can abuse this work force and not honor contracts, since the workers can’t seek legal reddress.
The solution is at least two fold. We should work to secure our borders in a sophisticated fashion. One important step would be to revise the 14th amendment right of 1868 for former slaves that says any anyone born in the US is automatically a citizen. This is powerful magnet today that should be removed.
But employers should not be allowed to harvest hard working illegals and treat them like slave labor. Illegal workers should have the right for restitution for any work contract, whether written or verbal. Since the appearance in court could lead to their immediate deportation, there would have to be some protection, perhaps for a time period, a year or two, or they should be allowed a two week period to escape into anonymity, so that they can bring justice to their situation without facing immediate deportation.
All illegals should be registered either voluntarily or involuntarily, so the state can mange their numbers and the industries that depend on their work. Employers should probably be required to issue or apply for work permits for every illegal they hire.

President Trump’s Muslim Ban Lite – The New York Times

“President Trump was center stage when his administration hastily rolled out a sweeping travel ban targeting Muslims in late January, vowing it would ensure “we are not admitting into our country the very threats our soldiers are fighting overseas.”

He was out of sight on Monday as administration officials unveiled a downscaled, but still pernicious, version of the ban, which targets refugees and travelers from six predominantly Muslim nations. It’s not hard to see why. The Muslim Ban Lite is an implicit acknowledgment that the Trump administration stumbled spectacularly in its first major attempt to deliver on a campaign promise.”

I worry that this whole mess is to distract us from the issue of the new administration helping the Russians hack our election.
Nevertheless, the NYT has written an excellent editorial.
the two top comments are also valuable:

Socrates

is a trusted commenter Verona NJ 12 hours ago

Cause of Death AND related Odds of Death

Heart Disease and Cancer 1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease 1 in 27
Intentional Self-harm 1 in 97
Unintentional Poisoning 1 in 103
Motor Vehicle Crash 1 in 113

Fall 1 in 133
Assault by Firearm 1 in 358
Pedestrian Incident 1 in 672
Motorcycle Rider Incident 1 in 948
Unintentional Drowning 1 in 1,183

Exposure to Fire, Flames or Smoke 1 in 1,454
Choking from Food 1 in 3,408
Bicycle Incident 1 in 4,337
Firearms Discharge 1 in 7,944
Air and Space Transport Incidents 1 in 9,737

Hornets, Wasps and Bees 1 in 64,706
Contact with Heat and Hot Substances 1 in 69,169
Legal Execution 1 in 111,439
Being Bitten or Struck by a Dog 1 in 114,622
Lightning Strike 1 in 174,426

Shark Attack 1 in 8 million
Refuge Terrorist 1 in 46 million
Illegal Immigrant Terrorist 1 in 138 million

Compared to the threat posed by refugee terrorists , the typical American is:

6 times more likely to die from a shark attack
29 times more likely to die from a regional asteroid strike
260 times more likely to be struck and killed by lightning
4,700 times more likely to die in an airplane or spaceship accident
129,000 times more likely to die in a gun assault
407,000 times more likely to die in a motor vehicle incident
6.9 million times more likely to die from cancer or heart disease

And Donald Trump is the leading cause of America’s daily fear, loathing, paranoia and self-destruction.

Ban the Birther-Liar from political office.

NYT Pick

Christine McM

is a trusted commenter Massachusetts 10 hours ago

Just when thought Donald Trump could do no more Harm to our image that he has already done, I’ve been proven wrong. I find myself despairing at times that he is trashing everything this country stands for.

It’s sickening to think he keeps his people in line to issue their standard support for his policy, Even bringing up new ways to slander the reputation and image of Muslims. Why do he in Bannon and Sessions hate Muslims so much? Honor killings indeed.

Canada has replaced the United States as a fair honorable nation in doing their fair share to take the large number of Syrian refugees that we reject.

Based on the ugly comments of Trump supporters and of course of Trump himself, I simply do not recognize this country anymore. Since Trump was elected, the number of hate crimes has risen accordingly. The ugly murders of dark skin Sikhs who aren’t even Muslims but just look foreign are a stain on Americas image.

If I were younger, I would seriously think about leaving. It’s getting harder and harder for thinking Americans who know the difference between truth and lies to have to listen to a president so full of hate and so unqualified to represent us on the world stage.

God protect our nation from Donald Trump. And God bless Canada for doing what we should be doing as well.

Department of Justification – By Emily Bazelon – NYT

“As the Republican primary season progressed, it became clear to Sessions and Bannon that Trump could be the vessel for their brand of Republicanism. Back in August 2015, Bannon emailed a friend, according to The Daily Beast, that while he felt good about other candidates like Ted Cruz, he was ready to pick Trump, because he was “a nationalist who embraces” Sessions’s immigration plan. Six months later, Sessions became the first senator to endorse Trump for president. Last August, Sessions helped create a new immigration policy for Trump, which called for reducing immigration by, among other things, tightening the rules about visas for high-skilled workers. That same month, Bannon took over Trump’s campaign.”

Oh my Gosh! NYT revelations. Steve Miller was a top aid of Sessions, who was in a cabal with Bannon. Sessions was a leader of racist immigration reform.

“Their shared view was central to Trump’s Inaugural Address, which, according to The Wall Street Journal, Bannon and Miller principally wrote. For a president taking office amid peacetime and economic growth, the speech offered a singularly dark vision. Trump spoke of “American carnage” — a country made increasingly dangerous by “the crime and the gangs and the drugs,” its economy ravaged by production abroad, its borders infiltrated by marauders. The speech was a perfect distillation of the foreboding view of America broadcast by Breitbart — a land in disarray and decline that has reached the point of crisis.

In fact, violent crime has been declining sharply for 25 years; with a small uptick in 2015, it remains low. The number of undocumented immigrants has fallen slightly in the last decade, and these newcomers are less likely to commit violent crimes than people who were born here. Evidence shows that immigrants are an engine of economic growth and entrepreneurship. While they take a small bite out of the wages of native-born workers without a high school diploma, they provide an overall boost to productivity that increases the pay of more educated workers by up to 10 percent, labor economists say. As for the “totalitarian threat” that, according to Sessions, Americans face from radical Islam, since Sept. 11, white supremacists and other non-Muslim extremists have killed nearly twice as many Americans as radical Muslims, according to the New America Foundation.

Why would the Trump administration paint a picture so starkly at odds with reality? It’s simple: A vision of the nation besieged provides clear justification for policies that will advance Sessions, Bannon and Miller’s divisive nationalism.”

There are many excellent comments, including:

Marjorie

Richmond 4 hours ago

Excellent, excellent article. I knew Sessions’ appointment was a dire development, but I had no idea how deep his roots with Bannon went. Thank you for the detail about the inner workings of DOJ, as well as some history. With an impotent, worse than useless Congress our only hope is a strong and principled Judiciary. We have seen them stand up for us so far. This piece wilts my hopes to some extent about their ability to withstand the onslaught of this administration’s attacks on our values and freedoms, but I hope they stand strong.

Christine McM

is a trusted commenter Massachusetts 3 hours ago

This article made me very depressed. As a nation, we used to pride ourselves on being a melting pot. Now it appears the angry white mob, convinced immigrants, blacks, and anybody that looks different from them are stealing things away from them, are out to purify the nation.

Bannon and company want to make America Christian and white, and they’re pushing the envelope to make it happen. It’s a nativist, ugly view of a nation founded on civic values of freedom designed to make our country the beacon of the world–not a closed off island of contempt and exclusion of anybody not exactly in their form.

In another article, I read that Steve Bannon was very angered that many (but certainly not as many as he claimed) Silicon Valley CEOs were Asians. This petty little man now sits right at Trump’s ear. Nobody elected Steve Bannon, yet there he sits at the pinnacle of power, cultivating Sessions and many of Trump’s cabinet to do his dirty work through the Justice Department.

As the quote goes, “all that’s necessary for evil to prevail is that good men do nothing.” I might add, “or that very bad men, like Sessions, Miller, and Bannon are put in charge of ensuring evil prevails for a very long time.”

 

New Trump Deportation Rules Allow Far More Expulsions – The New York Times

“WASHINGTON — President Trump has directed his administration to enforce the nation’s immigration laws more aggressively, unleashing the full force of the federal government to find, arrest and deport those in the country illegally, regardless of whether they have committed serious crimes.

Documents released on Tuesday by the Department of Homeland Security revealed the broad scope of the president’s ambitions: to publicize crimes by undocumented immigrants; strip such immigrants of privacy protections; enlist local police officers as enforcers; erect new detention facilities; discourage asylum seekers; and, ultimately, speed up deportations.”

Excellent reporting. Thank you Misters Shear and Nixon. I wanted immigration reform, but not this way. The comments are more critical, and more alarming, than the article. I agree that this is the wrong way. It opens up the faucet for employers to be abusive. At the end of the month, don’t pay the hard worker, have him or her deported. This method appears to pander the worst among us, while giving license to the bullies and scoundrels of business.

California Looks to Lead the Trump Resistance – The New York Times

“Nobody knows yet what Donald Trump is going to do to immigration enforcement. Only a month has passed since the election, and the president-elect is no different from the candidate: erratic, self-contradictory, hazy on principles and policies.But states and cities that value immigrants, including the undocumented, do not have the luxury of waiting and hoping for the best. They are girding for a confrontation, building defenses to protect families and workers from the next administration.”

We need immigration reform, and protection for illegal workers. But we should amend the 14th Amendment so the children of illegals and visitors are not automatically US citizens.

In Tracy Kidders’s book, Strengh in What Remains, the protagonist, an illegal immigrant and war refugee survives the genocide in Burundi, and in Manhattan, he gets a job for a Gristedes Market working as delivery boy, for $15/day for a 12 hour day with no breaks. Through miracles and luck and very generous people, he survives the genocide, then the sharks of NYC, and thrives.  Such a beautiful story has to make one shudder at the idea of making the border impossible for anyone to cross.