One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds – By Nate Cohn – The New York Times


Despite low national approval ratings and the specter of impeachment, President Trump remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to decide his re-election, according to a set of new surveys from The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.

How Trump fares among registered voters

Trumpvs. Biden Sanders Warren
Michigan (n=501)
Sanders +2
Trump +6
Pennsylvania (661)
Biden +3
Sanders +1
Wisconsin (651)
Biden +3
Sanders +2
Florida (650)
Biden +2
Trump +1
Trump +4
Arizona (652)
Biden +5
Trump +1
Warren +2
North Carolina (651)
Trump +2
Trump +3
Trump +3
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,766 registered voters from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26.

Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, he trails Joe Biden by an average of two points among registered voters but stays within the margin of error.

Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago.

The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.”

Why Democrats’ Gain Was More Impressive Than It Appears – By Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn
By Nate Cohn, Nov. 7, 2018, 296 comments

“It wasn’t necessarily the night of either party’s dreams. The Democrats are poised to gain around 35 House seats after Tuesday’s elections. Republicans seem likely to gain a few seats in the Senate, and they triumphed in some high-profile governor’s races.

But Democrats faced formidable structural disadvantages, unlike any in recent memory. Take those into account, and 2018 looks like a wave election, like the ones that last flipped the House in 2010 and 2006.

In the House, where the Democrats had their strongest showing, it’s impressive that they managed to fare as well as they did. In a sense, Republicans had been evacuated to high ground, away from the beach.

At the beginning of the cycle, only nine Republicans represented districts that tilted Democratic in the previous two presidential elections. Even in a wave election, these are usually the only incumbents who are standing on the beach with a greater than 50 percent chance to lose.”

Nate Cohn says that under the circumstances, it was a blue wave.